The pattern AI Aurora of Microsoft constantly putting out forecasts faster than traditional methods and provides greater accuracy in many cases.
Microsoft developed a model of artificial intelligence (AI) can beat the prediction methods currently in track air quality, weather and tropical storms affected by climate change, according to research published today 21/5 magazine Nature. The new system named Aurora has not yet been commercialized, creating weather forecast for 10 days and predict the path of storms accurate, faster-than-forecast tradition with lower cost.
“The first time an AI system can overcome all centers are active on the storm prediction”, lead author of the study, Paris Perdikaris, associate professor of mechanical engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, Usa, said.
Trained only with data in history, the Aurora can forecast exactly all the storm in the year 2023 the more accurate the prediction center acts as the national hurricane center Usa. Model forecast traditionally been designed based on the principles first physics such as conservation of mass, momentum and energy, require capacity calculation giant. According to the researchers, the cost calculation of Aurora is lower than a few hundred times.
Test results this serial model WHO Pangu-Weather by the Chinese technology Huawei developed and published by 2023, can be opened to change in the way the agency on world weather and events extreme danger due to the climate change cause.
“I believe that we are in the early stages of the era of transformation in science air system”, Perdikaris share. “In 5 – 10 years to come, the important thing is how to build systems that can work directly with observations from the source remote sensing such as satellite and weather station to create forecasts have a high resolution at any place where we want to”.
According to the design team, the Aurora is the model WHO first continuous pass 7 prediction center in predicting the go 5 days of the devastating storm. For example, in the simulation, the Aurora forecast accuracy ago 4 days the place and time Doksuri, storm most expensive ever recorded in the pacific, will be landed in the Philippines. The official forecast at the time of the year 2023 as it will go to the north Taiwan.
The pattern AI, Microsoft's pass model of the center for weather forecasting, medium-Range European (ECMWF) in 92% of cases for the forecast worldwide 10 day on the scale of about 10 km2. ECMWF provides forecasts for 35 European countries, is considered the global standard for accuracy of the weather.
Last month 12/2024, Google announced model GenCast of them have crossed the accuracy of central Europe in more than 97% of 1.320 climate catastrophe recorded in 2019. Promising results in this being the weather agency closely monitored. Some include meteorological agency France (Météo-France), developing learning models ONE of their own along with pattern techniques of traditional.
Source: vnexpress.net